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Defining Lines of Authority
Armed Forces Journal
The Armed Forces Journal has an interesting and important set of arguments as it pertains to the divisions of authority between Defense and State. Moreso than ever, these lines of authority have been blurred from the Bush Administration. Now with a new president, the State Department appears to be regaining lost influence on regional actions. However, because of the previous eight years, this issue is likely to be an on-going one. Charles Ray provides the first of two thought pieces in the Feburary 2009 issues of AFJ. The other is provided by LTC Reyes Cole entitled, "The Military Dipolomat."
Keep Current on News, Articles, and Publications with Foreign Policy Implications
Not all news or analysis gets due attention. Because of this reality, important items such as news events or critical ideas in journals or online that have direct foreign policy implications don't get the attention that is needed.
Geopolitical Thinking wants to provide links to news and commentary that deserves more attention. Below, items of note are provided along with basic blurbs when helpful.
Not all news or analysis gets due attention. Because of this reality, important items such as news events or critical ideas in journals or online that have direct foreign policy implications don't get the attention that is needed.
Geopolitical Thinking wants to provide links to news and commentary that deserves more attention. Below, items of note are provided along with basic blurbs when helpful.
Global Economy Plays Major Role in U.S. Energy Strategy
National Defense Magazine
The United States consumes 25 percent of the world’s petroleum but has only 3 percent of its reserves. Many advocates of “energy independence” cite that fact as a reason for abandoning foreign oil and relying on domestic renewable energy such as wind and solar. Others argue that “energy independence” means we should substitute domestic oil shale, natural gas and offshore fossil fuels. But both flavors of “energy independence” are based on false premises.
National Defense Magazine
The United States consumes 25 percent of the world’s petroleum but has only 3 percent of its reserves. Many advocates of “energy independence” cite that fact as a reason for abandoning foreign oil and relying on domestic renewable energy such as wind and solar. Others argue that “energy independence” means we should substitute domestic oil shale, natural gas and offshore fossil fuels. But both flavors of “energy independence” are based on false premises.
IEA warns oil will hit $200 a barrel by 2030
Wall Street Journal
International Energy Agency claims "current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable"Releasing its latest forecast, the Agency said that the recent fall in oil prices would prove shortlived and predicted that they would soon rebound back to the $100 a barrel levels seen earlier this year.The report said that while "market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over," adding that "current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable".It also claimed that the oil industry will have to invest in excess of £16 trillion over the next 20 years to meet projected demand, as production from older fields declines and oil firms are forced to invest in more costly alternative supplies such as oil from tar sands.
Wall Street Journal
International Energy Agency claims "current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable"Releasing its latest forecast, the Agency said that the recent fall in oil prices would prove shortlived and predicted that they would soon rebound back to the $100 a barrel levels seen earlier this year.The report said that while "market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over," adding that "current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable".It also claimed that the oil industry will have to invest in excess of £16 trillion over the next 20 years to meet projected demand, as production from older fields declines and oil firms are forced to invest in more costly alternative supplies such as oil from tar sands.
Seven ways China might surprise us in 2009
The McKinsey Quarterly
How will China surprise us next? Shocks, tipping points, and revelations have become basic staples of the world’s daily news diet. But with so many eyes now on this emerging Asian giant, what happens there continues to have an exceptional ability to draw attention and to shift perceptions drastically and suddenly.
The McKinsey Quarterly
How will China surprise us next? Shocks, tipping points, and revelations have become basic staples of the world’s daily news diet. But with so many eyes now on this emerging Asian giant, what happens there continues to have an exceptional ability to draw attention and to shift perceptions drastically and suddenly.
Russia May Help Cuba Build Space Centre
New Scientist Space
Moscow is ready to help Cuba develop its own space centre, Russia's space agency chief said on Wednesday after talks in Caracas with Venezuelan and Cuban officials, Russia's Itar-Tass news agency reported.Russia has stepped up efforts to develop closer links with both countries, which are ideological enemies of Washington, including sending Russian strategic bombers on a mission to Venezuela this month.
New Scientist Space
Moscow is ready to help Cuba develop its own space centre, Russia's space agency chief said on Wednesday after talks in Caracas with Venezuelan and Cuban officials, Russia's Itar-Tass news agency reported.Russia has stepped up efforts to develop closer links with both countries, which are ideological enemies of Washington, including sending Russian strategic bombers on a mission to Venezuela this month.
SecDef Urges Middle Ground with Russia
LA Times
Sounding a note of caution in the West's confrontation with Russia, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Friday that the next U.S. administration would need "a pragmatic blend of resolve and restraint" in dealing with Moscow.By seeking a middle ground in relations with Russia, Gates appeared to be sounding a warning to politicians such as Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, who have pushed for the United States to isolate Russia after its military confrontation with Georgia, and back the small former Soviet republic at all costs.
LA Times
Sounding a note of caution in the West's confrontation with Russia, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Friday that the next U.S. administration would need "a pragmatic blend of resolve and restraint" in dealing with Moscow.By seeking a middle ground in relations with Russia, Gates appeared to be sounding a warning to politicians such as Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, who have pushed for the United States to isolate Russia after its military confrontation with Georgia, and back the small former Soviet republic at all costs.
Worry at Border as North Korea Restores Nuclear Reactor
Associated Press
The North Korea communist regime's confirmation it is reviving its nuclear reactor and speculation about Stalinist leader Kim Jong Il's ill health are heating up tensions, with some fearing Kim's death could cause the regime to fall and hordes of North Koreans to flee.
Associated Press
The North Korea communist regime's confirmation it is reviving its nuclear reactor and speculation about Stalinist leader Kim Jong Il's ill health are heating up tensions, with some fearing Kim's death could cause the regime to fall and hordes of North Koreans to flee.
Moscow Boosts Defense Spending to $50B
Wall Street Journal
The Kremlin is set to boost its defense budget by more than one-quarter, taking it to a post-Soviet high of $50 billion next year as it seeks to add muscle to its foreign policy and reverse underinvestment.
Wall Street Journal
The Kremlin is set to boost its defense budget by more than one-quarter, taking it to a post-Soviet high of $50 billion next year as it seeks to add muscle to its foreign policy and reverse underinvestment.
U.S. Government Gets Average Grade for Protecting Country Against WMD Attack
Security Management
The U.S. government's efforts to stop terrorists from attacking the United States with weapons of mass destruction has received an overall grade of "C" from a bipartisan group of former national security experts. "A nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon in the hands of terrorists remains the single greatest threat to our nation," says the report (pdf) released by the Partnership for a Secure America (PSA). The report reminds readers that the 9-11 Commission concluded in 2004 that al Qaeda still sought WMDs for another attack against the United States, and thus "preventing the proliferation of these weapons warrants a maximum effort."
Security Management
The U.S. government's efforts to stop terrorists from attacking the United States with weapons of mass destruction has received an overall grade of "C" from a bipartisan group of former national security experts. "A nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon in the hands of terrorists remains the single greatest threat to our nation," says the report (pdf) released by the Partnership for a Secure America (PSA). The report reminds readers that the 9-11 Commission concluded in 2004 that al Qaeda still sought WMDs for another attack against the United States, and thus "preventing the proliferation of these weapons warrants a maximum effort."
Russia's deal-making in Africa raises alarms in Europe
International Herald Tribune
Russian companies, like counterparts from China and other Asian countries, are spending billions of dollars for better access to the mineral wealth of countries across the continent. Such interest is particularly welcome to those African governments that balk at conditions on democracy, human rights and openness that can be attached to dealings with Americans or Europeans.The big concern in Western Europe is that Russia's tentative deals with African members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are an attempt to get a stranglehold on Europe's natural gas supplies. The Russian company Gazprom, which already provides a quarter of Europe's gas, agreed with the Algerian oil company Sonatrach to seek out and commercialize natural gas together after Vladimir Putin visited Algiers last year as Russia's president, before he became prime minister.
Russia to send naval squadron, planes to Venezuela
Yahoo News
Russia said Monday it will send a naval squadron and long-range patrol planes to Venezuela this year for a joint military exercise in the Caribbean, an announcement made at a time of increasingly tense relations with the United States. The apparently retaliatory move follows the U.S. deployment of warships to deliver aid to the former Soviet nation of Georgia, barely a month after Russian armor and aircraft crushed the Georgian military in a five-day war.
Yahoo News
Russia said Monday it will send a naval squadron and long-range patrol planes to Venezuela this year for a joint military exercise in the Caribbean, an announcement made at a time of increasingly tense relations with the United States. The apparently retaliatory move follows the U.S. deployment of warships to deliver aid to the former Soviet nation of Georgia, barely a month after Russian armor and aircraft crushed the Georgian military in a five-day war.
Russia courts old allies, steps up defiance of the West
The Christian Science Monitor
Russia is groping for fresh ways to engage with the world after its lightning-fast summer war with Georgia chilled relations with the West and dismayed even some of its closest regional allies. "We are facing the beginning of a complete review of Russian foreign policy," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading Moscow foreign-policy journal. "Things have changed and, based on what Russian leaders are saying, our long effort to integrate with Western institutions, to become part of the Western system, is over. The aim now is to be an independent power in a multipolar world in which Russia is a major player."
The Christian Science Monitor
Russia is groping for fresh ways to engage with the world after its lightning-fast summer war with Georgia chilled relations with the West and dismayed even some of its closest regional allies. "We are facing the beginning of a complete review of Russian foreign policy," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a leading Moscow foreign-policy journal. "Things have changed and, based on what Russian leaders are saying, our long effort to integrate with Western institutions, to become part of the Western system, is over. The aim now is to be an independent power in a multipolar world in which Russia is a major player."
Russian troops to remain in Georgia 'for a long time'
The Globe And Mail
Russia said Tuesday that it will station troops in two Georgian breakaway provinces for the foreseeable future, reaffirming its plans less than 24 hours after agreeing to pull forces from Georgian areas around Abkhazia and South Ossetia.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that a Russian military presence was necessary to prevent Georgian attempts to regain control of the separatist regions.“Russian troops will remain on the territory of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on request of their leaders in parliament,” he said at a briefing. “They will remain there for a long time. Their presence there will be needed at least for the foreseeable future to prevent any relapses of aggressive actions.”
The Globe And Mail
Russia said Tuesday that it will station troops in two Georgian breakaway provinces for the foreseeable future, reaffirming its plans less than 24 hours after agreeing to pull forces from Georgian areas around Abkhazia and South Ossetia.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that a Russian military presence was necessary to prevent Georgian attempts to regain control of the separatist regions.“Russian troops will remain on the territory of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on request of their leaders in parliament,” he said at a briefing. “They will remain there for a long time. Their presence there will be needed at least for the foreseeable future to prevent any relapses of aggressive actions.”
Report: U.S. status in world will keep falling
Washington Post
An intelligence forecast being prepared for the next president on future international risks envisions a steady decline in U.S. dominance in the coming years, as the world is reshaped by globalization and climate change, and destabilized by regional upheavals over shortages of food, water and energy.The report, previewed in a speech by Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community's top analyst, also concludes that the one key area of continued U.S. superiority -- military power -- will "be the least significant" asset in the increasingly competitive world of the future, because "nobody is going to attack us with massive conventional force."
Washington Post
An intelligence forecast being prepared for the next president on future international risks envisions a steady decline in U.S. dominance in the coming years, as the world is reshaped by globalization and climate change, and destabilized by regional upheavals over shortages of food, water and energy.The report, previewed in a speech by Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community's top analyst, also concludes that the one key area of continued U.S. superiority -- military power -- will "be the least significant" asset in the increasingly competitive world of the future, because "nobody is going to attack us with massive conventional force."
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